June 2022 Trucking Market Update

Guest Author

Jason_Miller

Jason Miller

Michigan State University
Associate Professor, Supply Chain Management

Every month, Jason Miller will release a Trucking Market Update covering demand conditions, supply conditions, and price as it pertains to the trucking industry. In addition, each month will feature bonus content consisting of Jason’s thoughts on a new topic beyond the “big three” categories.

Demand Conditions

As we approach the start of July, overall demand for trucking services has yet to show signs of substantial decline. The For-Hire Trucking Ton-Mile Index (TTMI) was up 2.4% from May 2021 and up 4.9% from May 2019. Benchmarking continues to indicate this index, when converted to revenue, correlates very strongly with Census Bureau revenue from the Quarterly Services Survey.

Given less-than-truckload carriers are still reporting strong demand, it seems unlikely that demand is set to suddenly drop. As a note, I expect the next iteration of the TTMI is likely to show additional upward movement relative to 2019 given new benchmarking data from the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization program suggests upward revisions in sectors such as consumer goods as shown below.

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Supply Conditions

On the supply side, May preliminary jobs numbers for truck transportation showed a not seasonally adjusted gain of 22,500; seasonally adjusted, this figure is 13,300. These figures continue to suggest strong employment growth, which is likely partly due to some drivers who became self-employed returning to carriers as employees...

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